Spring 2026 Mortgage Rate Forecast: Fixed vs Variable and What Renewers Need to Know

As of late March 2026, Canadian borrowers can access rates that are significantly improved from the peaks of 2023-2024, but still well above the ultra-low rates of 2020-2021.

There's broad consensus in the near term — but divergence further out. The key question is not whether rates will go lower, but whether they might start climbing again.

Any hike pushed to early 2027 at earliest

• Ideal if planning to stay in your home for the full term

• On $500K mortgage: ~$110 less per month

• Option to convert to fixed later without penalty

A 2 or 3-year fixed rate offers a middle ground. You lock in stability for a shorter period, positioning yourself to potentially benefit from lower rates at renewal. The 3-year fixed is currently around 3.79%.

Over one million Canadian households will renew their mortgages in 2026. If you took out a fixed-rate mortgage between 2020 and 2022 at rates near 2%, here's what to expect:

Begin shopping 120-150 days before your renewal date

Take competing offers back to your current lender

Consider extending to ease cash flow if payments jump significantly

USMCA review scheduled for July 2026 creates uncertainty for exporters

Rising oil prices from Middle East conflict pushing inflationary pressures

84,000 jobs lost in February, unemployment at 6.7% — continued weakness could trigger cuts

A sustained move above 3.25% could push fixed rates toward 4% or higher

. The Bank of Canada is on hold, fixed rates hover in the mid-3% to low-4% range, and the economic picture remains clouded by trade disputes and global uncertainty.

A 5-year fixed near 3.69% is competitive by historical standards.

Immediate savings are real, but protection is limited.

Don't accept the first offer — we shop it and negotiate for you.

Explore more expert insights to optimize your mortgage strategy

What the January rate hold means for your mortgage this year.

Prices stabilize as spring buyers prepare to enter the market.

Maximize savings at renewal with expert negotiation strategies.

Spring 2026 Mortgage Rate Forecast: Fixed vs Variable and What Renewers Need to Know

With the Bank of Canada holding steady at 2.25% and over one million renewals expected this year, Canadian borrowers face crucial decisions. Here's the latest rate forecast and expert guidance.